Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Ticks Upward in November Reading

Home prices increased in November, with national home prices up 0.70 percent month-to-month and 6.20 percent higher year-over year. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index rose by 0.70 percent in the three-month period ending in November; nationally, home prices grew 6.20 percent year-over-year.  Seattle, Washington held first place in home price growth with a year-over-year increase of 12.70 percent. Las Vegas, Nevada home prices followed with year-over-year home price growth of 10.60 percent. San Francisco, California home prices grew by 9.10 percent year-over-year. Slim supplies of homes for sale drove rising home prices and sidelined would-be borrowers as affordability remained out of reach.  Home Prices Get a Pre-Recession Do-Over in Some Cities David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Dow Jones Indices Committee, said that Los Angeles and San Diego California along with Las Vegas, Nevada and Miami Florida are repeating fast-paced price gains that they had prior to the recession.  Mortgage Rates, Building Costs Impact Supply of Homes and Affordability Combined effects of high mortgage rates and rapidly rising home prices could dampen buyer enthusiasm over time, but the time-worn proclamation that what goes up must come down has not applied to home prices in high demand metro areas. Home buyers may rush to close their home loans before rates rise, but more buyers may delay buying a home due to few options, higher home prices and rising rates.  Lower taxes and rising wages may encourage renters to buy homes, but home prices continued to outstrip income for many potential buyers.  Building more homes is the only relief in sight for low inventories of homes for sale, but builders face rising materials costs, shortages of lots suitable for building and insufficient workers. Other factors impacting home building and buying homes include poor weather in some areas during December, and further shortages of homes caused by natural disasters in 2017. 2018 may see high-priced local areas develop affordable homeownership programs as current prices continue to rise above interested buyers’ financial resourcesHome prices increased in November, with national home prices up 0.70 percent month-to-month and 6.20 percent higher year-over year. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index rose by 0.70 percent in the three-month period ending in November; nationally, home prices grew 6.20 percent year-over-year. Continue reading

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Metro Area Home Values Continue To Shine

Metro Values Up Case-Shiller 2013The Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released February 26 show strong growth in the majority of 20 cities and corresponding metro areas tracked during 2012.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measure home prices nationally and locally by compiling data from individual indexes including a 10-City Composite Index,  a 20-City Composite Index, and a 20-Metro Area Index that includes metro areas for each of the 20 cities used in the 20-City Composite.

Metro Areas Show Nearly Universal Growth

19 of 20 metro areas showed higher home prices in Q 4 2012 with the New York metro area showing a decrease in home prices; this could be due in part to the impact of Hurricane Sandy.

Highlights include:

The Atlanta and Detroit metro areas saw Q4 2012 Atlanta home prices increase by 9.9 percent year-over year, while Detroit home prices rose by 13.6 percent as compared to Q4 2011.

Home prices in the Phoenix Metro area improved by 23 percent compared to Q4 2011 for the highest year-to-year increase of all metro areas in 2012.

The 10 and 20 city indices and national home price composite improved as well.

The 10 and 20-city composites have gained approximately 8 to 9 percent since reaching their most recent lows in March of 2012; current readings indicate that home values have returned to autumn 2003 levels, but remain about 30 percent lower than they were at their peaks in June and July 2006.

On a month-to-month basis, both the 10-and 20- city composite Indices returned to positive readings with each rising by 0.2 percent, which recovered last month’s losses of 0.2 and 0.1 percent respectively.

The national home price composite is determined from information taken from the 9 geographic divisions established by the U.S. Census Bureau.

It rose by 7.3 percent year-to-year, but fell short of the Q3 2012 reading by 0.3 percent.

While some areas are still facing challenges, some cities and metro areas where home values declined the most are rebounding nicely.

All in all, it is quite apparent that the broad U.S. housing markets are recovering.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Case-Shiller Index Shows Near 6% Home Price Gain

Case-Shiller Index November 2012Home prices continue their upward climb.

Last week, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index showed home prices gaining 5.5 percent during the 12-month period ending November 2012, marking the largest one-year gain in home prices since May 2010.

The Case-Shiller Index measures changes in home prices by tracking same-home sales throughout 20 housing markets nationwide; and the change in sales price from sale-to-sale.

Detached, single-family residences are used in the Case-Shiller Index methodology and data is for closed purchase transactions only.

Between November 2011 and November 2012, home values rose in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets, with previously-hard hit areas such as Phoenix, Arizona leading the national price recovery.

The Phoenix market gained 1.4% for the month and was up 22.8% for the previous 12 months combined.

The top three monthly “gainers” for November 2012 were:

  • Phoenix, Arizona : +1.4 percent
  • San Francisco, California :  +1.4 percent
  • Minneapolis, Minnesota : +1.0 Percent

Only New York City posted annual home value depreciation. On average, homes lost -1.2% in value there.

It should be noted, however, that the Case-Shiller Index is an imperfect gauge of home values.

First, as mentioned, the index tracks changes in the detached, single-family housing market only. It specifically ignores sales of condominiums, co-ops and multi-unit homes.

Second, the Case-Shiller Index data set is limited to just 20 U.S. cities. There are more than 3,000 cities nationwide, which illustrates that the Case-Shiller sample set is limited.

And, lastly, the home sale price data used for the Case-Shiller Index is nearly two months behind its release date, rendering its conclusions somewhat out-of-date.

That said, the Case-Shiller Index joins the bevy of home value trackers pointing to home price growth over the last year. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), for example, reported similar home price growth with its November 2012 House Price Index (HPI).

Home values rose 0.6 percent between October and November 2012 nationwide, the FHFA said, and climbed 5.6 percent during the 12 months ending November 2012.

Economists attribute increasing home prices to higher buyer demand, record-low mortgage rates and the gradual improvement of the U.S. economy.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Case-Shiller Index Verifies Home Value Gains Through Q3 2012

Case-Shiller Index September 2012

The housing market continues to expand.

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, which was released earlier this week, U.S. home prices rose in September for the sixth straight month, climbing 0.3% as compared to the month prior.

On an annual basis, values are higher by 3.0%.

The Case-Shiller Index findings are a composite reading of 20 U.S cities, 17 of which showed home price gains in September. Detroit and Washington D.C. showed slight declines, and New York City showed no change.

Leading the recovery, though, appears to be Phoenix, Arizona. The previously hard-hit city has seen home values gain 20.4% over the last 12 months. Also noteworthy is that Atlanta, Georgia reversed 26 consecutive months of home value declines in September, posting a +0.1% annual growth rate.

Average U.S. home prices have climbed back to mid-2003 levels.

On a month-over-month basis, value change by city varied. San Diego, California and Las Vegas, Nevada both posted gains of 1.4 percent from August, leading the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked cities. Minneapolis, Minnesota and Phoenix showed gains of 1.1 percent.

Los Angeles, California rounded out the Top Five, posting a 1% gain month-over-month.

Despite the index’s strong findings, however, we should remember to temper our expectations. The Case-Shiller Index — like most home value trackers — is wildly flawed. Buyers in Metro Atlanta should follow its gospel with caution.

Here’s why.

First, the Case-Shiller Index tracks values for single-family homes only. As a result, it doesn’t account for multi-unit homes or for condos and co-ops. This is a big deal in cities such as Chicago and New York where high-rise units are common.

Another flaw in the Case-Shiller Index is that it’s 60 days delayed. It’s nearly December yet we’re still reviewing data from September. In housing market terms, September was a different market. Real-time data trumps data from last season.

That said, the long-term trends as shown by the Case-Shiller Index, are overwhelmingly positive. As a Case-Shiller Index spokesperson remarked, “It is safe to say we are now in the midst of a recovery in the housing market.”

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

 

Questions First-Time Home Buyers Should Ask

First-time home buyer questionsNationwide, mortgage rates are low in Georgia and home prices remain relatively low, too. This combination, plus rising rents, is pushing renters in some cities — including Metro Atlanta — toward first-time homeownership.

Buying your first home can be exciting, but you should also do your research to make sure that you ask the proper questions of the process, and make the best choices for yourself and your household.

For example, recommended questions for first-time buyers to ask home sellers include :

What major repairs have been made to your home?

Although standard disclosure forms are supposed to provide information regarding past damage and renovation to the property, there are occasionally repairs that are omitted or otherwise forgotten.  Be proactive and ask pointed questions about the roof, the foundation, and the electrical system. Some home issues have a way of resurfacing many years later and it’s best to know in advance.

To which school district does the home belong?

As a first-time homebuyer, you may or may not have school-aged children. However, in many areas, public school rankings positively (or negatively) affect home values. Ask your real estate agent for school district data. Consider asking the seller for feedback, too.

Is this a “distressed” property, and what does that mean to me?

For many home buyers, the allure of a foreclosed home or a home in short sale can be large. Prices are discounted as compared to comparable real estate — sometimes by as much as 20%. However, many distressed properties are sold as-is,” with little room for negotiation. This means that homes may be defective or, worse, uninhabitable. Ask your real estate agent for help with distressed homes and their suitability to your home buying needs.

After asking the above questions, and other questions, too, it’s important to remember that buying a home can be an emotional decision; and one that requires using your “brain” as much as your “heart”. Try to keep emotions in check so that you don’t overpay for a home that’s unsuitable, for example.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
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19 of 20 Case-Shiller Index Markets Improve In August

Case-Shiller Index : Home Prices Between July and August 2012

Home value rose to close out the summer, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, a national home-valuation tracker.

Nationwide, values rose 0.9% between July and August 2012 with 19 of 20 tracked markets showing improvement. Only one tracked city — Seattle, Washington — showed a decrease, falling just 0.1 percent.

On an annual basis, 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets improved, led by Phoenix. Home values in the Arizona city are up 18.8 percent from August 2011. The next closest city in terms of home price gains is Detroit, Michigan at 7.6 percent

We should temper our excitement for the August Case-Shiller Index, however. Although it suggests an ongoing U.S. housing recovery, the methodology of the Case-Shiller Index is far-from-perfect. In fact, one could argue that the index is more effective for policy-makers than for actual buyers and sellers of real estate.

There are three reasons for this :

  1. The Case-Shiller Index tracks home prices of single-family homes only. Multi-unit homes are excluded.
  2. The Case-Shiller Index can be distorted by “discounted” home sales (e.g.; foreclosure, short sale).
  3. The Case-Shiller Index publishes on a two-month delay — data is hardly current.

Beyond the above three points, however, the Case-Shiller Index falls short in another area — it ignores the basic tenet of housing that “all real estate is local”. In using 20 cities to represent the entire United States, the Case-Shiller Index reduces more than 3,100 municipalities into a single “market”.

Even within its 20 tracked cities, the Case-Shiller Index fails short as a housing market barometer. This is because — even with cities — home values vary. Some Metro Atlanta zip codes perform better than others, for example, as do some streets. The Case-Shiller Index can’t capture markets with that level of detail.

National housing data helps in spotting broader trends of growth but provides very little for today’s active buyers and sellers of real estate who need “real-time” data. For that, please contact me.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
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Case-Shiller index Shows Home Values Rising Nationwide, Too

Case-Shiller Index annual change July 2012

There have been no shortage of “housing market” stories lately. After sinking through much of late-last decade, home values slowly stabilized into mid-2011. By October 2011, values appeared to have bottomed.

Today, nearly five-and-one-half years after the April 2007 housing market peak, home prices are finally showing their ability to rebound. Over the past 12 months, a bevy of housing market data highlights broad-based market growth.

For example, as compared to August 2011, Existing Home Sales are up 9.3 percent nationally; New Home Sales are up 27.7 percent nationally; and home inventories have slipped to multi-year lows in Metro Atlanta and throughout the country.

Furthermore, multiple home value trackers show home prices rising both regionally and nationwide.

Last week, the government’s Federal Housing Finance Agency released its Home Price Index (HPI) — a metric which tracks how home values change between sequential property sales. HPI showed home values up 3.7% nationally.

Another home valuation tracker — the S&P Case-Shiller Index — has shown home values to be rising, too.

As compared to one year ago, the private-sector metric puts home prices higher by 1.2 percent via its 20-city composite. 20 cities remains a small subset of the broader U.S. population, but, in looking for a trend, it’s clear that the trend is a positive one.

Some of the Case-Shiller Index highlights from its most recent report :

  • All 20 tracked cities showed home price gains between June 2012 and July 2012
  • The previously hard-hit city of Phoenix now leads the nation with a 16.6% annual gain
  • Versus their respective lows, San Francisco and Detroit are up 20.4% and 19.7%

In addition, on a 12-month basis, only four cities are showing negative home value growth — Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, and New York City.

The Case-Shiller Index is a national index, though, and specifically does not report on valuation changes in specific U.S. cities and their neighborhoods. For local real estate data, make sure to speak with a local real estate agent instead.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
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